This writer can’t remember a time when we came into a major 24 hour race with so many unknown factors in play.
Here’s a brief tiptoe through what we expect to happen, what we expect to learn, and what we expect to bring the unexpected to the fore!
The Race
Overall this is the same punishing challenge that it always has been, the good news for the teams is that the weather forecast is looking good for the full 24 hours, warmer, sunny during the day, temperatures in the 60s and lows overnight in the 40sF.
No surprises for the track, no major changes there for the teams to grapple with.
Where there are changes though are in the ruleset, under caution and on pitlane. These may be highly polished operators but expect tired eyes and hands to make perhaps more errors than in recent years as the TUSCC field gets to grips with their brave new world.
Spectator numbers here have been very good in the run in to the weekend, Thursday crowds were in excess of anything we have seen here in the last decade.
Media coverage is a ‘let’s see’ at the moment – Again it’s a brave new world, TV in North America, and via Motors TV in Europe will be fine we think. The undercurrent of discontent about the lack of Radio Le Mans though extends way beyond the fanbase, we wish MRN well but they will need to be on their game if their credibility is to build in this marketplace with the fans, but also with the teams, and, it seems, with the manufacturers too.
The atmosphere in the paddock is good, BoP aside there’s a LOT of goodwill towards the new package and that’s fed in no small part by the reality that this HAS to succeed.
Prototype
Here’s where there are probably more unknowns than in any other class.
Balance of Performance – Here’s THE bone of contention across the field. The reality is that the P2s are slower, much slower, and in wheel to wheel racing, are likely to be more fragile too.
The teams are dismayed at the difference here in performance between the open topped LMPs and the DPs and most P2 runners are completely convinced that there will still be a disparity (should there be no post Daytona changes) at Sebring too.
And then there are the disparities between the DPs themselves – The reality is that with the exception of the BMW engined Starworks Riley nothing is able to touch the Corvette DPs. Ford are known to be unamused, ‘their‘ cars suffered reliability woes at the Roar and frankly look unable to go toe to toe with the Vettes here after their post test revamp.
Richard Westbrook at Spirit of Daytona expressed it perfectly yesterday: “I have never had, and probably never will again, get a better chance for an overall win in a major 24 Hour race.” DSC’s Mark Howson expressed it perfectly over breakfast this morning, “The Vettes have the Pescarolo Advantage of 2005.” Yup, a regulation-assisted performance advantage – but remember what happened to them!
And it’s that area of the unknown that is dominating the other part of the debate here – Can the heavily upgraded DPs last the distance – There has been no opportunity for the cars on their new Continental tyres, with the boost in power, and with the profound increase in downforce to be tested over race distances yet – and there has been no opportunity either to see the P2s in race conditions on the Contis either – It’s a brave new world, and the emphasis here will be on the ‘brave’!
The Mazda diesels aren’t really ready for the challenge ahead here, but they are here, this the first day of what John Doonan confirmed to DSC is a five year programme. The cars are Multimatic built coupes, still homologated as Lolas at present but with a proposal in hand to rebrand, and therefore presumably rehomologate, the cars as Mazdas.
The DeltaWing showed good comparative pace in Practice, and the package looks to have moved on considerably into this year – Will the little Coupe have the longevity it will surely need here – We’ll know soon enough!
With 68 cars out there and with other performance disparities to discuss within and between the other classes we are expecting an incident filled race – It could well be that it’s not the fastest car and crew that wins this but the most careful, and perhaps the luckiest!
PC
The PC Orecas are a complete unknown over 24 Hours, 12 Hours at Sebring are as far as they have been previously.
The teams though are confident that the sturdy spec racers will last the course.
One common theme amongst the teams is that they are all aware of the need to look after the front end of the car, their lack of straight line speed advantage against the GTs (both GTDs and GTLM) means that there will have to be plenty of overtaking action in the very crowded and risky environment of the slow and medium speed corners on the infield section. The PCs though cannot deal well with the kerbs without major risk of damage to the car’s front splitter.
Free Practice has already seen more than one incident which has seen contact between a PC car and another runner leaving a long repair – The 8Star team are still, this morning, rebuilding their car after a second incident yesterday.
If, and only if, these cars can stay out of trouble, there is a distinct possibility of a finish very high up the overall order.
GTLM
It’s a stellar field again for the GTE based GTLM field with manufacturer interest across the board, with factory driver squads dripping with quality.
Relative straight line speed against the rocket ship performance of the GTDs is an issue here, and again it will lead to plenty of action into and through the infield corners as the GTLMs exert their authority and unlock their aerodynamic and handling advantages.
In raw speed terms the Vipers and Porsches were dominant in qualifying with the Corvette not far behind, though both new C7.Rs have had minor electrical niggles that they won’t be able to afford to happen again in the race.
The BMW Z4GTE hasn’t competed in a 24 Hour race up to this point so there are unknowns there for the distance, though the basic machinery is very well proven.
This class, probably more than any other, will be a straight sprint, with the exception of the Corvettes the cars are well proven in race conditions, this could be THE race within the race and, with more assuredness of reliability than perhaps the Prototypes are expecting this early in the game there’s real potential for a shock overall result from a GT car.
Back to the triumphs of Viper and Vette overall here a decade and a half ago? Perhaps that’s a stretch, but this is a long, long race, anything can happen in the next 24 Hours
GTD
The numbers here are spectacular, so too is the variety and the quality of the entry. Every Championship has its bedrock and GTD could prove to be the foundation for TUSCC to progress, giving a relevant and accessible rung on the ladder.
The cars should be reliable, though there is a lot of brand new machinery here, the first race for the new Viper GT3, 911 GT Americas and they are fast, very fast indeed in a straight line – up to 8mph faster than the GTLMs and 10 mph faster than the PC Orecas – That will lead to some spectacular, and potentially disruptive action as the faster cars over a lap, look to maintain momentum.
Within the class the battles will be intense, between the Pros, and between the Gentlemen drivers too. There are some cracking driver line-ups here too, and not a little interest from the big factories with Audi, Porsche and Ferrari fielding factory driving talent but inevitably in a solidly Pro-Am class there are some very mixed ability crews too – Several of these teams are likely to be just as busy behind the wall as they will be on track.
Don’t lose focus though of the way that this class battle is going, and right across the field don’t forget that this isn’t a standalone race – Beyond the glory of the podium, Victory Lane and the one wristwatch that Allan McNish still covets there are Championship points at stake in what is, by far, the most significant and important new Championship that we have covered for a decade at least. The Future is now
GG
