ALMS – Early November
Paddock Poop 10 – The Bear Prognosticates
(And gets his Ire up, too)

The Woods of North America – The Bear is already very bored in the short time since the end of the North American sports car racing season at Laguna Seca a couple of weeks ago. I said sports cars – not road racing! So he’s been off reading the news, hanging around a forum or two, and corresponding with his friends. Good grief, Great Pumpkin, there are a lot of unsubstantiated rumors, unattributed stories and pronouncements, and irresponsible musings out there! Just what the Bear loves, of course. So I thought it was time for Murphy to tell y’all what he thinks. Remember, ole’ Murphy has been hangin’ round the paddocks for a while now; and he is one of the few bears you’ll meet that knows how to read and speaks four languages – English, Cannuck, American, an’ Southrun.

This will be mostly – but not all – about what the Bear hears about 2006.

Right off the top, here’s some big news. A “comfortable” Georgia entrepreneur has purchased a Superformance Coupe. The Bear actually saw him making the deal, and a source close to the principle confirmed that delivery was expected before Halloween. You can plan on seeing it at Petit Le Mans in 2006, and there is an outside chance it will make it to Sebring.

A year ago, some human pundits (bears and their woodsy friends didn’t fall for it) saw the sport being taken over by GT1s and declared prototypes dead. Now those same pundits are acknowledging that far from being dead, prototypes are on the rebound, and GT1 is moribund. That may be, but the Bear says to beware Englishmen bearing gifts – no, that’s Greeks – beware Englishmen making pronouncements (our esteemed Ed. excepted, of course). The Bear don’t know nuthin’ about trends, but the Bear does know that LMP1 and GT2 are hot, hot, hot, GT1 is not, not (at least for now), and LMP2 is, well, LMP2.

That doesn’t mean the small prototypes won’t be a draw in the coming season. They will, with the good news being two Penske-operated Porsche Spyder RSs. The second car will get a Frenchman and a German of considerable ALMS experience, as Porsche sticks with its factory pilots. Sorry, no American driver in the Penske stable in 2006. After that, a lot of it is more of the same. Mazda is looking for funding to field a second car, some report. Why not instead use any funding they find to put a newer chassis – meaning one somewhere within a grizzly’s weight of the rest of the class – around the Wankel motor? The Bear doesn’t think they need a four rotor, by the way. Since that all makes such good sense, that’s going to be the Bear’s prediction for the B-K bunch. That leaves two other “sure things” from the Bear’s sources: First, Intersport will run the Lola B05/40 AER they debuted in 2005, and the continued development of that chassis and the AER motor will stand Clint and season-long co-driver Liz Halliday in good stead. And second, Ben Devlin remains under contract for 2006 to Van der Steur Racing, the team having ordered a Lola B05/40 of its own. Murphy has been told that two Radicals have been ordered by ALMS-bound teams. Don’t count on seeing either at Sebring, though. Shorty (not one of the two from Murphy’s sources) is first in line, and his won’t be ready in time for Sebring. This is one instance in which that gap after Sebring may help someone.

More speculatively, BAT Racing is talking about campaigning a pair of aging (aged?) B2K/40s. If they do, we think it will be a part time effort. If that’s all the news, we’ll regularly get five small prototypes on the grid, sometimes seven (or six), and unless the Mazda gets a lot better in a hurry, it will be a two or three car race. Be prepared for Penske, Penske, Intersport podia.

But that might not be the whole story. The Bear has heard Duncan Dayton’s name associated with Honda and perhaps with Rahal. OK, OK, another Rahal rumor? Hey, the Bear is the purveyor of rumors, remember? This one might have some substance, though. One of the Bear’s favorite sources believes that Honda’s decision to remain an IRL engine supplier for the near term signaled its preference for ALMS over Grand Am for a sports car racing endeavor. It’s possible that nothing happens until 2007, but if 2006 is in the cards, look for a single car and a Lola chassis in a less-than-full “development” season. Stay tuned. If you’re counting, that’s a “baseline” of just six LMP2 entries, but a potential (at some races) of eleven. None of that has anything to do with “visitors” who might show up for Sebring or Petit Le Mans.

The other class of questionable proportion is none other than that former “hottie” (oh, that’s not the right use of that term, is it?) GT1. Corvette has been running a super team for better than a half decade now. Murphy was talking to his friend Connor the Beaver. “Conner,” he asked, “What do you see in GT1?” “Corvette, for sure,” said Conner, “that’s it.” “No one else?” I asked. “Not firm,” he answered. I had to agree. So there it is. Corvette. The rest is conjecture. The conjecture includes Aston Martin, Mr. Richards last heard making noises about needing penalties on Corvettes. Can’t compete? Hmmm. The Bear is not an empathetic sort, I have to admit. The same with Mr. Giangrande’s Saleen. Didn’t expect to be racing for third place. Expected what, then? Mr. Atherton assures us that someone will enter a Saleen, so make that three on the grid. All right. Let’s conclude that Aston is posturing. But there still is no firm word that anyone has “signed on” for the ALMS. Does AM/Prodrive then run a “factory team”? Murphy thinks so. Maserati? Some hint that Maserati is working on a prototype to get to Le Mans – it’s clear they won’t get there with the MC12, ever. Do they race here next year? No idea, but the Bear thinks if they do it won’t be in the same partnership with Risi Competizione. That bad idea is history. Still, there could be a Maserati Corse pair. For no reason than being stubborn, from what Murphy can see. Derek Bell? Corvette? Aston Martin? Neither? Murphy thinks neither, as in “no entry,” is the likely outcome of that story. So, count five GT1s on the grid. Maybe seven. No more. That doesn’t include the Superformance Coupe, by the way.

Now to the fun stuff! Ever think you would read that GT2 and LMP1 were the “fun stuff” compared to LMP2 and GT1? Well, that’s where we are. We’re on the verge of an announcement by Dyson Racing of its 2006 package. Sure, you think you know what that is, don’t you? The Bear knows what you do – a Lola B06/10, the building of same well underway as you read this (some previous Lolas, right). But what about the engine? The Bear can tell you that no one – and the Bear means no one – knew the answer to that as late as October 15. The Bear has his preference of course (as if it is any of his business). He’ll say “the turbocharged one” and let it go at that. However all that turns out, consider it a sure thing that you’ll see the blue and white, with the same cast of characters, on the grid in 2006 and beyond. And whatever their colors, you’ll see the team’s former Lola B01/60s, too. Murphy does not know whether that will be two cars on the grid, or one entry and a spare chassis. Intersport will be there, too, with a Lola B06/10, and with the new AER twin turbo V8. The boss over at ALMS told us that a “team new to the ALMS” has bought the Laguna-winning factory Zytek to contest the series, and we take him at his word on that – with a couple of familiar (to the ALMS) faces down to drive. Autocon has bought the former Intersport, former Matthews, Riley & Scott Mark IIIC to go with the one they’ve got. It’s still only one entry, though. The more astute amongst you will have noticed the absence of Miracle Motorsport in LMP2. Good work! That’s because they’re here – with the big boys. Is it a Courage? Perhaps not, but the Bear really doesn’t know that much. It’s just that most of what he has heard would put Kumho – and the Miracle guys – in LMP1.

Champion is the big story, as it should be. Murphy thinks that Dave can run an R10 after Le Mans if he wants to. He may also be able to run one of the new diesels at Sebring. But not in between. What does he do for the two May races? One of the Bear’s sources says that Audi will let him contest those with the “retired” R8, just as Audi Sport North America (Joest Racing) did with the R8R in 2000 after the R8 was introduced at (and won) Sebring. Others are not so sure that Audi will let the R8 out again at all. Some say that Dave wants nothing less than the R10 all the way through, and is pressing VAG for that in a bit of a game of “chicken.” Let’s hope that chicken makes it across the road in one piece, OK?

Is Murphy done yet? Nope. There’s that elusive Midwestern “Titan” thingy. After much poking around in the Wisconsin woods, the Bear thinks it’s just possible that there is such a thing, that it has drivers, and it will show up as early as Sebring, with a sponsor who has something to do with sunglasses. More wild speculation from the Bear. The last possibility is Team Jota. Sam has talked about a 2006 ALMS season, but then he also speculated that the team would contest Petit and Laguna this season. So just possible – but he’s in a truck (driving it) to Istanbul right now, and out of bear contact. Ten to twelve big prototypes? It could happen. And that doesn’t even begin to count the Murphy 5 ¾ chassis that might appear!

The Bear knows how many of you feel about “endurance” events. So there is this event amongst the Kettle Moraines – you know where that is? Think beer and brats. Anyway, here’s this great track, with a tradition nearly as long, if not as illustrious, as Sebring, and it has this sports car race, a “500.” Now it sticks in the Bear’s craw that the actual race is just 2 hours and forty-five minutes, so Murphy asked George about it. “It’s close to 500 hundred something, isn’t it?” was the response. The Bear wasn’t very happy with that – he thinks it’s a bit of a misrepresentation, and that this great track is an “also-ran” amongst ALMS events – not one of its “anchor” events. Well, George opined that he “outdrew this (Laguna Seca) race,” (Murphy doesn’t believe that for a New York minute, and that’s pretty short) and “it’s not the ‘headline’ event, but the ‘whole show’ that counts,” meaning, we took it, that the combination of Formula Atlantics and Star Mazda with ALMS at his place was somehow a better draw than Speed World Challenge and Star Mazda with ALMS at Laguna Seca. We don’t buy that either. The Bear spent so much time trying to explain just what Toyota Atlantic and Star Mazda were that he gave up with “Think training wheels.” Anyway, there seems to be no sentiment, absolutely none, to restore the Road America 500. And, though track management thought they had a break-through on their hands and title sponsor The Chicago Tribune might actually send a correspondent to the event, none could be found – again. They were there in spirit, however, with the free Sunday papers in the media center.

The other day, some guys who run a road racing association did a press release in which they claimed huge viewership for one of their support series. Part of it went like this: “…(the) race was watched by an average of 83% more viewers than several other sports car races that aired on SPEED the next day, including the season-ending ALMS race that lagged the...show by 55.1%.”

Well, now the Bear has heard that Speed TV is furious over that release. Murphy was told that in a telephone conversation with Speed TV, his source learned that (the road racing association) “tried to make misleading claims like this before and were asked to change terminology by Speed. This time they never ran it by Speed, which claims that they are having both Legal and Nielsen take a look at it.” The Bear has been told that contracts with Nielsen prohibit users from releasing or announcing information about competitors. Unfortunately, given the, ahem, business relationships, Murphy is pretty sure that Speed can’t get too furious.

So on to the “biggie.” Yes, “the biggie.” When my friend Kjos first covered anything for dailysportscar’s predecessor, Sports Car World, it was “to provide some focus on GT,” and one of the articles was actually titled “Kjos’s GT Race.” Since then, with one exceptional year (2001) it has been pretty much a Porsche parade, though the racing has been good enough. Murphy is here to tell you that 2006 will likely make all that nothing more than a fading (and not-so-good) memory.

Yes, the Bear thinks that a PTG/BMW M5 program is underway, and that there will be two cars on the grid, though one source has suggested that they will miss Sebring. Another source – let’s say right about half the time – has a whole different story to tell. It seems he saw Schnitzer testing a BMW LMP2 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and believes the M5 story was put out there as a “cover.” Chew on that little nugget. Murphy is going with the M5 – for now. Risi Competizione will be there with a Ferrari 430 – maybe two – at least one car has already been purchased. A Mercedes SLK-GTR from Dan Pastorini? Yup, that one seems to have “legs.” Two Panozies? (What is the plural of Panoz?) This one might actually have been in danger, since a source of the Bear’s said the M5 commitment was linked to the return of the two Panozes.

Conner the Beaver has been pretty busy chasing down and chewing through a whole forest of GT2 stories, and is convinced that Nissan is going to be there with a pair of 350Zs. Add to that a pair of Lexus IS coupes. The first of those is likely the Japanese manufacturer that “The Boss” referred to in September. Is the latter the second S2 entry?

So what will become of the Porsche brigade? It seems it will be down to a battalion. Alex Job Racing will field one 911 GT3 RSR, with Ian Baas and Patrick Long. Petersen Motorsports / White Lightning Racing will be back, though some put them in an Aston in GT1, or even some kind of a prototype. The Bear’s going to leave them right here, intent on defending their class crown, at least for now. J3 will likely be off to Grand Am. The Flying Lizards come back with the GT2 Porsche for 2006, then go after a Porsche Spyder RS for 2007. Look for Farnbacher to step up from the Porsche GT3 Cup series with a single entry. BAM! might be back, or might be off to Grand Am, so Porsches will still number five or six, but be outgunned by the combined numbers of challengers. Murphy can’t remember when that has ever happened.

So is the furry one (no, not you Janos) looking forward to 2006? You betcha, he is. Murphy is thinking he’ll see a “core group” of thirty-six on the grid, and be into the forties more than once. Of course, don’t forget, the Bear is pretty irresponsible, and all this could be just scurrilous rumor. Until next time.

Murphy H. Bear