With dozens of teams sweating on the news that will come on 2 February from the ACO over the entry list for the 2017 Le Mans 24 Hours a select few can shortcut the process depending on the results of the 4 Hours of Sepang later today.
Auto entries for Le Mans will be awarded to the class Championship winners in LMP2, LMP3 (auto entry in LMP2) and GT (auto entry in GTE Am), and all three are going to the wire!
The Le Mans entries are awarded to the winning teams, not drivers and in LMP2, and for the overall Championship, the #35 Jackie Chan DC Racing Oreca 03R Nissan leads the way, an 18 point advantage effectively means that they have to score a classified finish to earn their place. But they DO have to finish!
Waiting in the wings should they falter is the #25 Algarve Pro Ligier Nissan, a reshuffle to the crew sees the car in real contention BUT this effort must win the race to have any chance of claiming the Championship, even second, with a non-finish for the #35 will not be enough, the #25 hasn’t won this season and, on countback the Oreca would take the title.
The final potential, or rather possible, Championship winner is the second Algarve Pro Ligier, the now all Gentleman crewed, Judd engined car though has to win overall with the other two contenders non- scoring for that to happen!
In LMP3, after a stunning run at Buriram last time out, and trouble for the previously Championship leading Tockwith Ligier, the Championship is wide open.
Five cars can still take the title though the chances for the #85 G-Print by Triple 1 Ligier are, realistically, purely mathematic, to win the crown it would need to win the race with all four other contenders non-scoring.
The #7 ARC Bratislava Ginetta is in a slightly stronger position, 15 points off the Championship lead, 25 up for grabs today, they can win, but need the three ahead in the points to have a bad day!
The #1 Jackie Chan DC Racing Ligier is third in the points, just seven off the Championship lead, with all of the top three having scored a win, the countback for any of the three finishing in a tie with a race win today means that the Sepang winner would take the title.
A win then for the #1 would seal the crown, anything less and the two ahead need to hit trouble for the #1 to score a repeat Championship win.
For the leading pair the task is relatively simple. A win seals it for either the #26 Tockwith Motorsport Ligier, or the #4 ARC Bratislava Ginetta. Pole for the Ligier yesterday sees the points gap cut to just three. This fight gets interesting if neither car, nor the #1 Ligier wins the race! If that scenario emerges then the minor podium slots become absolutely vital!
In GT the title was briefly sealed in Thailand with the #5 DH Racing Ferrari crossing the line the winner before a post race penalty for running too slowly in the pitlane (effectively the Stewards decision was that the car blocked their competitors to gain track position for the team car) dropped the car to third in the final results.
The #5 still leads the points standings, with the sister #3 car, pole setter yesterday, third. The Team BBT Ferrari sitting as Piggy, or rather Prancing Horse, in the middle.
Mathematically five cars COULD still win the Championship, all of them Ferraris!
The #51 Spirit of Race 488 GT3 though sits 22 points off the lead, their season started with a perfect weekend in Zhuhai, pole and the win, but since then has been dire. They need similar misfortunes to hit all four cars ahead, on form that seems unlikely!
The #61 Clearwater Racing effort will, in any case, be at Le Mans, they will be a full season WEC team in 2017 but would love to take a repeat title this year. That’s again an unlikely scenario, a 20 point gap again leaving their fate to others (mis) fortunes but stranger things have happened!
Realistically though the title fight, if it comes to a fight, is between the top three.
Alex Riberas, in the post qualifying press conference yesterday, pointing out that the point for his #3 DH Racing Ferrari yesterday opened up a crucial advantage for the team. If either of the Chinese entered team cars win the race then one of them WILL win the title, a win for the #3 means that the chasing #37 BBT 488 GT3 cannot overhaul the sister #5 for the title, the points gap currently sits at 14 between the top two.
The available scenarios then between the top three are:
#3 wins, either #3 or #5 DH Ferrari takes the title and the team goes to Le Mans!
#5 wins, #5 DH Ferrari takes title.
#37 wins, #37 takes the title only if #5 finishes lower than 4th.
If anyone else wins then the #37 can win if both DH cars hit trouble but the #37 MUST finish on the podium.
For the #5 fourth or better seals the title.
For the #3 to win the title they must finish at least second.
If the Audis and BMWs though have a good day then things might get very interesting indeed!
