How The 2023 GT500 Championship Will Be Won
This weekend, sports car racing fans will be treated to not one, but two championship-deciding season finales this weekend. In addition to the FIA WEC 8 Hours of Bahrain on Saturday, the 2023 Autobacs SUPER GT Series will conclude this Sunday at Mobility Resort Motegi, the site of the Motegi GT 300km Race Grand Final.
Even if there was no prospect of a compelling championship fight at Motegi, there would still be a lot to watch for in this 63-lap final showdown: The final race in the legendary career of three-time GT500 Drivers’ Champion, Yuji Tachikawa, and the last GT500 run for the second-generation Honda NSX-GT, around a difficult and technical circuit which often produces solid multi-class racing.
But three teams still have a chance to win the GT500 championship in Motegi, and appropriately, all three manufacturers are represented in this fight, through their top teams and best drivers.
After winning the penultimate round at Autopolis, TGR Team au TOM’S and the flagship #36 Toyota GR Supra lead the GT500 Championship standings, with Sho Tsuboi and Ritomo Miyata on 69 points.
A win or second-place finish would be enough for TOM’S to clinch its sixth GT500 Drivers’ Championship, and a win would also clinch a ninth GT500 Teams’ Championship for what has long been regarded as Toyota’s premier racing team in Japan.
Tsuboi already has the experience of winning the ultimate prize in GT500: Two years ago, he and Yuhi Sekiguchi won the championship in this same #36 au TOM’S Supra, winning the final race at Fuji and overcoming a 16-point deficit on the final day of the season to win the title.
Still only 28 years old, Tsuboi has grown into the role of lead driver and has been his typically excellent self this season.
But the story of 2023 has undoubtedly been his co-driver Ritomo Miyata. What’s at stake for the newest Toyota Gazoo Racing WEC Challenge prodigy? Miyata won his first Super Formula Championship this past weekend at Suzuka, overcoming the impossible challenge of Team Mugen’s two-time champion ace Tomoki Nojiri and Red Bull’s F1-bound ‘super rookie’ Liam Lawson to do it.
If he wins the GT500 title this weekend, Miyata will become just the fifth driver to win the Japanese “Double Championship” – both GT500 and Japanese Top Formula championships in the same calendar year. At age 24, he’d also be the youngest.
And that would give Miyata an incredible windfall of momentum heading into 2024. Industry rumours suggest that a “graduation” from SUPER GT to the FIA World Endurance Championship is imminent – which means Miyata may not get another chance to win a GT500 title for some time if his sought-after move to the world championship stage happens next season.
Trailing by seven points is the second-ranked #3 Niterra Motul Nissan Z of NDDP Racing, driven by Katsumasa Chiyo and Mitsunori Takaboshi. Chiyo and Takaboshi were title contenders last season, but a costly first-lap collision for Chiyo and a subsequent drive-through penalty brought an end to their challenge last year.
NDDP Racing, which is a second car from the NISMO factory team in all but name, is going for its first title in GT500 and so too are NDDP graduates Chiyo and Takaboshi, who finally broke through with their first career wins last year and want to cement their legacies with a championship. Chiyo has finally had the success that many expected of him when he stepped up in 2016 off the back of an incredible 2015 GT3 racing season, while Takaboshi has exceeded his potential and arguably become the fastest driver in the Nissan fleet.
It would also be a second straight championship for the new Nissan Z GT500, which debuted with a championship last season courtesy of Team Impul.
This year, the second NISMO factory-run car has been strong and consistent throughout the season – despite some tough luck at the two races at Suzuka, Chiyo and Takaboshi won a mixed-weather summer race at Fuji and were leading the GT500 standings going into Autopolis before conceding to the TOM’S 36.
With the seven-point deficit, Chiyo and Takaboshi will need a fourth-place finish at minimum to win the drivers’ title. If they win at Motegi, they’d need the #36 car to finish third or lower. If they finish second, they’d need the #36 to finish sixth or lower, and if they finish third, they need the #36 to finish eighth or lower and the #16 ARTA Mugen Honda NSX-GT to finish second or lower.
It’s also worth noting that this is the last race for NISMO’s long-time tyre supplier Michelin in GT500. The French tyre maker cited a ‘lack of relevance’ between GT500 and its other top-tier sports car racing programmes as its reason for pulling out of the top class after this year.
A dry race is likely based on preliminary weather forecasts, but it’s close enough to a coin flip that one must consider the strength of Michelin’s wet-weather compounds as a potential factor.
Speaking of which, ARTA’s black #16 Honda driven by Nirei Fukuzumi and Hiroki Otsu is the surprising choice to be Honda’s only chance at a final GT500 championship for the NSX.
When ARTA and M-TEC (Mugen) joined forces this year it was expected that Tomoki Nojiri and Toshiki Oyu in the orange #8 would lead the way, but poor luck has left them on the outside looking in. Instead, it’s Fukuzumi and Otsu, who have stood on the podium in three of the last four rounds including a win at the summer Suzuka race, that are bidding for their first championships in GT500 – with Fukuzumi trying to become just the third driver to win championships in both classes of SUPER GT.
Is it destiny? Car number 16, trailing by 16 points going into the weekend, hoping to win ARTA’s first GT500 championship in 16 years…and just to sweeten the deal, Mugen/Honda legend Ryo Michigami – Otsu’s mentor in his GT300 years – will be driving his 2000 title-winning #16 Castrol Mugen NSX in a ceremonial run on Sunday morning.
Add one more factor to the equation: The front-engined version of the Honda NSX-GT has never lost at Motegi, with five wins in five races since 2020 including a top-five lockout in the November 2020 race.
Good thing, too, since the #16 car needs to win Sunday’s race to have any chance at overturning the same deficit that TOM’S did two years ago.
They’d also require the #36 to score four points or fewer and the #3 to score 11 points or fewer. Without bonus points, that translates to eighth place and third place, respectively.
But if that happens and there’s a tie at the top of the standings, ARTA would hold all of the tiebreaker advantages with two wins (versus one for NDDP Racing) and a third-place finish (which TGR Team au TOM’S does not have).
As for the GT300 Championship, the math is very simple.
The #52 Saitama Toyopet GreenBrave Toyota GR Supra of Hiroki Yoshida and Kohta Kawaai (70 points) just needs to score one point to secure the championship for both drivers and the team.
The #2 muta Racing Toyota GR86 (Yuui Tsutsumi/Hibiki Taira, 50 points) has to win from pole position and score all 21 available points to have any chance to win the championship.
You can never say never, but it would take a truly catastrophic collapse for GreenBrave’s 20-point advantage to be overrun!
There may actually be more fire in the battle for second in the standings. Tsutsumi and Taira only lead the #56 Realize/Nissan Mechanic Challenge GT-R (João Paulo de Oliveira/Teppei Natori) by five points. The #7 Studie BMW M4 GT3 (Seiji Ara/Bruno Spengler*), #18 UPGarage Honda NSX GT3 (Takashi Kobayashi/Syun Koide), and #61 Subaru BRZ R&D Sport (Takuto Iguchi/Hideki Yamauchi) could also take second in the championship, as they’re all within 11 points of Tsutsumi and Taira.
(*Spengler is 35 points behind Ara in the Drivers’ Championship as a result of missing three races.)
Images © GTA
